Markets Without SpinFollow the Incentives

Essays

The written heart of Markets Without Spin

Every episode begins as an essay — a single thread of incentive followed to its often uncomfortable conclusion. Read slowly; that is the point. Each piece pairs with its podcast episode.

The Essays

Episode 14September 20261 min read21 min listen

Episode 14: The York Rabbit Hole Begins

In the last episode, Franz Amussen explained how a morning walk through Salt Lake City unexpectedly led him to the Small Satellite Conference—and ultimately to York Space Systems. Now the rabbit hole begins. After discovering that Orbion had been acquired by York, Franz starts digging into York itself. The company had gone public only months earlier at $34 a share, yet its stock had fallen dramatically. At the same time, York was pursuing an ambitious strategy: assembling an integrated space and defense company through acquisitions. York had acquired Orbion for propulsion, ATLAS Space Operations for ground infrastructure and mission operations, Solestial for space solar technology, and ALL.SPACE for advanced satellite communications. Is York assembling a collection of best-in-class technologies—or simply buying companies and locking itself into them? Franz examines York's business model, its government dependence, its falling revenue guidance, its backlog and contract pipeline, and the question at the center of the investigation: What exactly is York trying to build? That question leads to an even more important one: Who is betting on York—and what are their incentives? Next time: Follow the Money. This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

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Episode 13September 20261 min read10 min listen

Episode 13 The Conference I Wasn't Looking For

What started as a morning walk through downtown Salt Lake City turned into the beginning of a much bigger investigation. Franz Amussen accidentally stumbled across the Small Satellite Conference and began talking with companies exhibiting there. One conversation at the Orbion booth led to a surprising discovery: Orbion had been acquired by York Space Systems. That raised a series of questions. Who is York? Who owns it? Why is it acquiring aerospace companies? Who is financing the strategy? What does BlackRock have to do with it? And are York's substantial losses actually destroying capital—or investing in capabilities that could eventually be worth much more? In this episode, Franz explains how an ordinary morning walk became the starting point for a deep dive into York Space Systems—and why he decided to follow the story wherever it led. This is the beginning of the York Space Systems rabbit hole. Markets Without Spin is about understanding how markets and companies actually work—not telling you what to buy. This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

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Episode 12September 20261 min read35 min listen

Episode 12: When Profits Aren't Profits: The Accounting Game Behind GAAP Earnings

What does it really mean when a company says it "earned" $500 million? GAAP gives investors a common language for measuring corporate performance. But GAAP earnings aren't the same thing as cash—and the accounting choices, estimates and assumptions behind those earnings can have a profound effect on what investors see. In this episode of Markets Without Spin, we examine how accounting can make a company's economics look better or worse than they really are. We look at: Accrual accounting and the difference between earnings and cash Depreciation and useful-life assumptions FIFO vs. LIFO inventory accounting Revenue recognition Fair-value and mark-to-market accounting Management incentives and executive compensation Enron and the danger of turning future profits into today's earnings Arthur Andersen and the collapse of Enron Planet Labs and the opposite problem: when today's investment looks like today's expense Goodwill and acquisitions Why the cash flow statement may tell you more than the headline earnings number The central lesson is simple: Don't distrust GAAP. Understand it. Don't just ask, "What did the company earn?" Ask: How did it earn it? Where's the cash? What assumptions went into the number? What is management incentivized to do? And what is the company actually building with the money? Because companies don't spend earnings. They spend cash. Markets Without Spin explores the forces, incentives and financial mechanics that shape markets—and what investors should know before accepting the conventional story.

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Episode 10August 20261 min read20 min listen

Episode 10: Show Me the Incentives

Episode 10 – Show Me the Incentives In this episode of Markets Without Spin, Franz Amussen traces the structural transformation of the American economy — not through ideology, but through incentives. Beginning with President Nixon's closure of the gold window in 1971, Franz explains how monetary expansion, inflation, regulatory accumulation, globalization, and financialization reshaped American production, ownership, and middle-class stability over decades. This episode explores: Why inflation is not neutral How Paul Volcker restored monetary credibility Why many factories never reopened after the early 1980s The incentive gap between U.S. and emerging markets The long-term hollowing of industrial communities Regulatory friction and its cumulative effects Financialization and capital concentration Why structural change rarely feels dramatic while it's happening This is not a political episode. It is an examination of cause and effect. If you want to understand how the American economy transformed — and why — start with incentives.

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Episode 09August 20261 min read21 min listen

Episode 9: The Myth of Safety

The Myth of Safety In this episode, we examine what "safe" really means in modern finance. We often assume that money in the bank is secure. That brokerage accounts are protected. That money market funds are cash equivalents. History tells a more complicated story. This episode explores: The 2013 Cyprus bail-in and frozen deposit accounts Capital controls and withdrawal limits inside the European Union The 2008 "breaking the buck" moment at the Reserve Primary Fund How the commercial paper market nearly froze payroll across America The structural build-up to the 2008 financial crisis The incentives behind mortgage securitization and leverage expansion Moral hazard and the stabilization of major institutions through TARP A personal experience during the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank Why some uninsured depositors were rescued — and others were not Brokerage firm failures and the risk of losing access even when assets are legally segregated What it actually means to be an unsecured creditor of a bank How FDIC insurance works — and what it doesn't guarantee The role of the Treasury and Federal Reserve as ultimate backstops Why nominal protection is not the same as protection of purchasing power Practical steps toward antifragility in a layered financial system This episode sets the foundation for Episode 10, where we examine the gold window, inflation, and the structural shift in the monetary system. If you found value in this discussion, please subscribe and share.

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Episode 08August 20261 min read13 min listen

Episode 8: Inside the Pipes: Dark Pools, Payment for Order Flow & Who Really Sets Price

In Episode 8 of Markets Without Spin, Franz Amussen pulls back the curtain on the invisible plumbing of modern markets. When you click "buy" or "sell," where does your order actually go? It may never reach the public exchange. This episode breaks down: Payment for Order Flow (PFOF) Internalization Dark pools High-frequency trading and latency arbitrage Conditional liquidity The 2010 Flash Crash March 2020's liquidity shock Why stop-loss orders can behave unpredictably in stressed markets How leverage interacts with volatility Franz revisits lessons from: The 2010 Flash Crash The March 2020 COVID liquidity event A personal story involving short volatility exposure and margin liquidation Referencing Flash Boys by Michael Lewis, this episode explains how modern market structure fragments price discovery — and why liquidity can disappear when it's needed most. Key Takeaways Commission-free trading isn't free — it's monetized differently. A significant portion of retail flow never hits public exchanges. High-frequency traders provide liquidity — but only conditionally. In volatility spikes, liquidity providers step back. Liquidity risk can be more dangerous than fundamental risk. Structure determines survival during market stress.

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Selected Writing

Standalone essays beyond the podcast

Corporate History

When the Trains Stopped Running

The night Penn Central collapsed and what its downfall reveals about incentives, debt, and the slow decay of institutions.

June 20, 197016 min read

Markets

When Everyone Is Rational and the Outcome Is Absurd

Collective irrationality rarely requires irrational people. It requires a structure in which sensible individual choices compound into a result no one wanted.

May 20, 20269 min read

Public Finance

The Tax That Wasn't About Revenue

Some taxes are designed to raise money. Others are designed to be seen raising money. Telling the two apart explains more politics than any manifesto.

May 3, 202611 min read

Institutions

Trust as Infrastructure

Institutions are expensive precisely because they let us stop checking. We examine what happens to an economy when the cost of trust quietly rises.

April 15, 202614 min read